In a recent episode of The Zogby Report, John and Jeremy Zogby of John Zogby Strategies, a well-known independent polling and opinion survey company, delved into the complexities of forecasting the closely contested 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. According to the latest polling data, both candidates are locked in a 47% tie, making this one of the most competitive races in recent history.
Despite Harris seeing a modest bump following the Democratic convention and debate performances, the race remains incredibly close, especially in critical battleground states where the margin between candidates is often within the margin of error. The Zogbys stressed that this deadlock highlights just how difficult it is to predict the eventual outcome.
The pollsters raised an important question: is the race truly shifting? While small changes in polling results might suggest a candidate gaining ground, the Zogbys warned that these fluctuations are often exaggerated in the media. In reality, the data shows little movement, and neither Trump nor Harris has pulled ahead in any meaningful way.
Adding to the unpredictability is the possibility of a “black swan” event—an unexpected occurrence that could drastically alter the election’s course. The Zogbys pointed out that major global events, such as the war in Ukraine or ongoing tensions in the Middle East, along with economic factors like the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, could influence undecided voters as Election Day approaches.
With so many variables in play, the Zogbys cautioned against making early predictions. The race is far from settled, and as past elections have shown, late shifts and surprises could easily change the outcome. For now, the 2024 race remains wide open.